A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE COVID-19 (NOVEL CORONAVIRUS) PANDEMIC

Authors

  • Jayne Lois San Juan De La Salle University, Manila
  • Andres Philip Mayol De La Salle University, Manila
  • Phoebe Mae Ching Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
  • Ezekiel Bernardo De La Salle University, Manila
  • Angelimarie Miguel De La Salle University, Manila
  • Alvin Culaba De La Salle University, Manila
  • Aristotle Ubando De La Salle University, Manila
  • Charlie Sy De La Salle University, Manila
  • Jose Edgar Mutuc De La Salle University, Manila

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70954/itmj.v3i1.149

Keywords:

COVID-19, System Dynamics, Flu Pandemic, Response Strategies, Policy Development

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused an overwhelming impact on lives around the world. Countries around the world have scrambled to implement various control measures such as social distancing, community lockdowns, quarantines in varying degrees of stringency and success. This paper proposed the application of the system dynamics (SD) modeling framework to capture the complex relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system so that policies may be developed to effectively target the issue. In this study, three common policies, namely social distancing, quarantine, and vaccination, were integrated into the basic flu model to assess which would be the most effective in mitigating the infection and identify the portion of the system it would be best to leverage actions on. Results revealed that policies that remove the possibility of transmission through quarantine and vaccination performed best in reducing the spread and consequences of the pandemic. This model may help policymakers evaluate potential policy alternatives, especially when responding to high-risk issues such as a pandemic.

Author Biographies

Jayne Lois San Juan, De La Salle University, Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

Andres Philip Mayol, De La Salle University, Manila

Mechanical Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

Phoebe Mae Ching, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Department of Industrial Engineering and Decision Analytics

Ezekiel Bernardo, De La Salle University, Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

Angelimarie Miguel, De La Salle University, Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

Alvin Culaba, De La Salle University, Manila

Mechanical Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

Aristotle Ubando, De La Salle University, Manila

Mechanical Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

Charlie Sy, De La Salle University, Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

Jose Edgar Mutuc, De La Salle University, Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research

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Published

2020-12-16

How to Cite

San Juan, J. L. ., Mayol, A. P. ., Ching, P. M. ., Bernardo, E. ., Miguel, A. ., Culaba, A., Ubando, A. ., Sy, C., & Mutuc, J. E. . (2020). A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE COVID-19 (NOVEL CORONAVIRUS) PANDEMIC. Innovative Technology and Management Journal, 3(1), 15–20. https://doi.org/10.70954/itmj.v3i1.149

Issue

Vol. 3 (2020): Innovative Technology and Management Journal

Section

Articles

License

The copyright holder is the Innovative Technology and Management Journal, Eastern Visayas State University, Tacloban City, Philippines.

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